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Pedestrian-Involved Fatal Crashes More Common in Winter in Every State but One

Updated on:
Content was accurate at the time of publication.
Editorial Note: The content of this article is based on the author's opinions and recommendations alone. It may not have been reviewed, commissioned or otherwise endorsed by any of our network partners.

While the winter season brings holiday cheer, it also brings inclement weather, meaning the roads are often more dangerous — and more crowded as people travel for the holidays. According to the latest LendingTree study, every state outside of Iowa experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to the nonwinter months.

We’ll highlight which states had higher fatal crash rates, which ones had higher rates of daytime fatal crashes and which ones experienced the biggest increase in pedestrian-involved fatalities in the winter. Plus, stick around for tips on preparing your auto insurance for the winter season.

  • Eight states had higher fatal crash rates in the winter than during the rest of the year. Hawaii saw the biggest winter increase between 2017 and 2021 (the latest available), with fatal crashes 24.9% more common from December through March than the rest of the year. That’s significantly higher than the next states on the list, Florida (12.6%) and California (6.9%). Nationally, fatal crash rates were 4.3% less common in the winter, with North Dakota (40.7%), Vermont (37.2%) and Maine (33.3%) seeing the biggest nonwinter increases.
  • In 40 states, daytime driving in the winter was deadlier than in nonwinter months. Between 2017 and 2021, 54.3% of fatal crashes in the winter in Alaska occurred during the day (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.), versus 41.5% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months — a difference of 12.7 percentage points. Nevada (6.6 percentage points) and Maine (5.9 percentage points) saw the next highest winter daytime increases.
  • Every state outside of Iowa experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to nonwinter months. Nationally, pedestrians were involved in 21.5% of fatal crashes from December through March between 2017 and 2021. Comparatively, 17.0% of fatal crashes during the rest of the year involved a pedestrian. The District of Columbia had the biggest difference in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months, at 34.1 percentage points. That’s followed by Rhode Island (15.5 percentage points) and Delaware (13.3 percentage points).
  • Between 2020 and 2021, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 15.3%. Overall, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 7.1% in the 10 years between 2012 and 2021. During this period, Christmas crash fatalities rose the most between 2013 and 2014 (268.4%) and 2019 and 2020 (146.5%).

According to our analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2017 and 2021 (the latest available), eight states had higher fatal crash rates in the winter compared to the rest of the year. By state, Hawaii saw the biggest increase in winter: While there were 9.0 fatal crashes per 1 billion miles driven during the nonwinter months (April through November), that rose to 11.3 from December through March. That means fatal crashes were 24.9% more common in the winter in Hawaii.

That’s significantly higher than the next highest state on the list, Florida, which had a 12.6% increase in winter fatalities — but more on that later.

LendingTree auto insurance expert and licensed insurance agent Rob Bhatt says he’s surprised to see Hawaii at the top of the list, though a few factors could affect its ranking.

“For starters, people in areas with harsher winters are likely more accustomed to driving in winter conditions and are better at driving in it,” he says. “They may also be less likely to speed or take other risks in wintry conditions, and their vehicles may be better equipped for winter. In areas like Hawaii with mild winters, drivers may not take winter risks as seriously because the risks may not be as obvious. Some drivers may be more likely to slow down on a road covered by snow or ice than on a road covered by a little water or frost.”

The Hawaii Department of Transportation reported that driving under the influence, speeding and distracted driving contributed to traffic fatalities the most in 2021. These behaviors can be particularly dangerous during the winter months, when road conditions may be more challenging due to weather changes. And while Hawaii doesn’t experience traditional winter weather like snow or ice, it does have a rainy season that typically begins in October and ends in April. This could lead to more hazardous driving conditions, like wet or slippery roads, during the winter season.

8 states with higher fatal crash rates in the winter months than in nonwinter months

RankStateFatal crashes per 1 billion miles, winter monthsFatal crashes per 1 billion miles, nonwinter months% change
1Hawaii11.39.024.9%
2Florida14.613.012.6%
3California11.811.06.9%
4Alaska11.811.16.2%
5New Mexico13.813.25.0%
6Georgia11.811.34.3%
7Alabama12.612.32.1%
8Texas12.612.41.8%

Source: LendingTree analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.

Florida (12.6%) — with fatal crashes increasing from 13.0 per billion miles driven to 14.6 — and California (6.9%) — 11.0 to 11.8 — ranked next.

Florida and California also have typically mild winters, which Bhatt says could affect driver behavior. In addition, California has many areas with high traffic volumes, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Of the 25 most traveled locations in the U.S., 12 are in California, with Interstate 5 (in the L.A. metro area) ranking first.

Nationally, though, most states don’t see a rise in fatal accidents during the winter. Across the country over the same 2017-to-2021 period, fatal crash rates were 4.3% less common in the winter. North Dakota (40.7%), Vermont (37.2%) and Maine (33.3%) had the biggest decreases in fatal accidents during the winter months.

Full rankings

Change in fatal crash rates between the winter and nonwinter months by state

RankStateFatal crashes per 1 billion miles, winter monthsFatal crashes per 1 billion miles, nonwinter months% change
U.S.10.911.4'-4.3%
1Hawaii11.39.024.9%
2Florida14.613.012.6%
3California11.811.06.9%
4Alaska11.811.16.2%
5New Mexico13.813.25.0%
6Georgia11.811.34.3%
7Alabama12.612.32.1%
8Texas12.612.41.8%
9Arizona13.013.0'-0.2%
10Kansas12.312.4'-1.0%
11Delaware12.412.5'-1.2%
12Rhode Island8.48.5'-1.4%
13Nevada10.911.1'-1.7%
14Pennsylvania11.111.3'-1.9%
15Louisiana14.615.0'-2.8%
16Virginia9.810.1'-3.2%
17Maryland8.99.2'-3.4%
18Oklahoma13.514.0'-3.5%
19Mississippi14.915.6'-4.1%
20Massachusetts5.75.9'-4.3%
20North Carolina11.411.9'-4.3%
22Washington8.59.0'-5.4%
23Indiana9.510.1'-5.6%
24New Jersey7.78.3'-6.7%
25South Carolina16.217.4'-7.1%
26Oregon12.413.5'-8.1%
27Kentucky13.314.8'-10.5%
28Nebraska9.010.1'-10.7%
29Tennessee11.813.2'-10.9%
30Missouri10.211.6'-11.5%
31Connecticut8.19.2'-12.2%
32New Hampshire7.28.4'-14.3%
33Ohio9.010.6'-15.0%
34Montana11.914.1'-15.4%
35West Virginia13.215.9'-17.1%
36Arkansas12.415.0'-17.2%
37Iowa8.09.7'-17.8%
38Illinois8.810.9'-19.0%
38New York7.28.9'-19.0%
40Michigan8.611.0'-21.5%
41District of Columbia7.49.5'-21.9%
42Utah6.28.0'-22.2%
43Wyoming8.711.2'-22.9%
44Wisconsin7.19.2'-23.0%
45Minnesota5.36.9'-23.9%
46South Dakota8.811.6'-24.0%
47Colorado8.912.1'-26.2%
48Idaho8.912.4'-28.3%
49Maine7.511.2'-33.3%
50Vermont6.29.9'-37.2%
51North Dakota6.811.5'-40.7%

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.

While fatality rates may be lower in the winter across most states, the percentage of fatal crashes occurring in the daytime was higher. Between 2017 and 2021, daytime driving in the winter months was deadlier than in the nonwinter months in 40 states.

Having less daylight may play a role in the increase in fatalities here, but Bhatt says that’s just one factor.

“The greatest daytime hazard drivers face in winter is a slick road,” he says. “When a road is covered by snow, ice or even water from a rainstorm, you need more distance to avoid a hazard that may pop up in front of you. Overcast weather may also reduce your ability to recognize a hazard right away.”

By state, Alaska had the biggest increase in the percentage of fatal accidents occurring in the daytime. In the winter, 54.3% of deadly crashes in Alaska happened during the day (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.). That compares with 41.5% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months — a difference of 12.7 percentage points.

States with the biggest percentage point difference between fatal daytime crashes in the winter and nonwinter months

RankState% of fatal crashes in winter months during daytime% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months during daytimePercentage point difference
1Alaska54.3%41.5%12.7
2Nevada52.4%45.8%6.6
3Maine63.7%57.8%5.9

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.

Of course, Alaska’s proximity to the Arctic Circle could play a role here. While all states experience less daylight in the winter, Alaska’s northernmost regions experience over two months of total darkness, according to Alaska.org. While not all of Alaska goes dark in winter, its interior regions may only experience under four hours of light on the shortest day of the year. Less visibility — plus Alaska’s particularly harsh winters — may increase daytime driving dangers.

Nevada (6.6 percentage points) and Maine (5.9 percentage points) saw the next highest differences in the percentage of fatal crashes in the winter and nonwinter months during the daytime.

Full rankings

Biggest/smallest percentage point differences between fatal daytime crashes in the winter and nonwinter months

RankState% of fatal crashes in winter months during daytime% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months during daytimePercentage point difference
U.S.47.4%46.8%0.5
1Alaska54.3%41.5%12.7
2Nevada52.4%45.8%6.6
3Maine63.7%57.8%5.9
4Vermont66.1%60.8%5.4
5Rhode Island48.1%42.8%5.3
6Iowa57.9%54.1%3.8
7Colorado53.8%50.3%3.5
8South Dakota60.6%57.5%3.1
8Oregon53.2%50.1%3.1
8Washington49.1%46.1%3.1
11Minnesota58.1%55.3%2.8
11Idaho58.4%55.6%2.8
13New York50.8%48.1%2.7
13Arizona47.8%45.1%2.7
15Oklahoma52.2%49.7%2.6
16Louisiana45.5%42.9%2.5
17New Jersey47.2%44.9%2.3
17South Carolina44.9%42.6%2.3
19Alabama50.5%48.2%2.2
20West Virginia56.8%55.3%1.5
20North Carolina51.5%50.0%1.5
22Missouri52.3%50.9%1.4
22Utah57.4%56.0%1.4
24Kentucky55.7%54.4%1.3
24Wisconsin52.6%51.2%1.3
26Illinois46.7%45.5%1.2
26California40.5%39.3%1.2
26Maryland44.5%43.3%1.2
29North Dakota48.0%46.9%1.0
30Ohio49.4%48.5%0.9
30Virginia50.4%49.4%0.9
30Mississippi51.6%50.7%0.9
33Michigan47.4%46.8%0.6
33Arkansas53.8%53.2%0.6
33Pennsylvania52.8%52.3%0.6
36Wyoming57.7%57.2%0.5
37New Mexico48.3%47.8%0.4
38Kansas53.3%53.0%0.3
39Texas42.6%42.5%0.2
40Georgia48.2%48.1%0.1
41Indiana50.4%50.5%'-0.1
42Connecticut42.3%42.7%'-0.4
43Tennessee48.0%48.6%'-0.6
44Florida41.2%41.9%'-0.7
44Massachusetts47.6%48.4%'-0.7
46Delaware46.4%48.2%'-1.8
47Montana48.3%50.6%'-2.3
48Nebraska48.9%52.7%'-3.7
49District of Columbia28.9%33.3%'-4.4
50New Hampshire50.4%59.6%'-9.3
51Hawaii30.6%43.5%'-12.9

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.

Winter is a particularly dangerous season for pedestrians. Except for Iowa, every state experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to the nonwinter months between 2017 and 2021.

Nationally, 21.5% of fatal crashes from December through March involved a pedestrian during the four years analyzed. During the rest of the year, 17.0% of fatal crashes involved a pedestrian — a 4.5 percentage point difference.

By state, the District of Columbia had the biggest increases in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months (63.2%) compared to the nonwinter months (29.1%) — a 34.1 percentage point difference.

States with the biggest percentage point difference between fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months

RankState% of fatal crashes in winter months involving pedestrians% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months involving pedestriansPercentage point difference
1District of Columbia63.2%29.1%34.1
2Rhode Island31.2%15.7%15.5
3Delaware34.6%21.4%13.3

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.

The District’s walkability may play a role here. According to a study from Smart Growth America and Places Platform, the District of Columbia is the third-most pedestrian-friendly metro among the 35 most populous. With a larger number of people likely on the streets — plus D.C.’s wet and snowy winters — drivers may lose control of their vehicles more easily, and may be more likely to hit a pedestrian.

Rhode Island (15.5 percentage points) and Delaware (13.3 percentage points) followed. Like the District of Columbia, these states’ particularly snowy and rainy winters likely play a role in pedestrian fatalities.

Full rankings

Biggest/smallest percentage point differences between fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months

RankState% of fatal crashes in winter months involving pedestrians% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months involving pedestriansPercentage point difference
U.S.21.5%17.0%4.5
1District of Columbia63.2%29.1%34.1
2Rhode Island31.2%15.7%15.5
3Delaware34.6%21.4%13.3
4Hawaii35.9%23.6%12.2
5New Hampshire19.0%7.2%11.8
6Alaska26.6%16.1%10.5
7New York35.1%24.7%10.4
8Connecticut27.2%17.9%9.2
8South Dakota16.7%7.5%9.2
10New Jersey38.6%29.4%9.1
11Washington26.8%17.9%8.9
12Maine15.9%7.5%8.5
13Utah21.6%13.2%8.4
14Wyoming13.0%5.5%7.5
15Montana13.9%6.8%7.1
16Nevada29.9%22.9%7.0
17Massachusetts25.1%18.7%6.4
18California32.1%25.7%6.3
19Idaho12.0%6.0%6.0
19Maryland28.9%23.0%6.0
21Pennsylvania19.1%13.3%5.8
22Michigan20.3%14.7%5.6
23Oregon20.2%15.4%4.9
24New Mexico25.8%21.2%4.6
24Georgia21.0%16.4%4.6
26Vermont14.5%10.3%4.2
26Minnesota15.1%11.0%4.2
28Ohio15.8%11.9%3.9
29Illinois19.6%15.8%3.8
29Louisiana21.6%17.8%3.8
31Colorado17.5%13.8%3.7
32North Dakota10.2%6.7%3.5
32Virginia17.0%13.4%3.5
32Arkansas14.9%11.4%3.5
32Missouri14.9%11.4%3.5
36Wisconsin12.2%8.9%3.3
37South Carolina19.6%16.6%3.0
38Oklahoma15.4%12.5%2.9
38Indiana14.0%11.1%2.9
40Arizona25.3%22.5%2.8
41Kentucky13.3%10.6%2.7
41Tennessee16.1%13.4%2.7
43North Carolina17.9%15.3%2.6
44Florida24.9%22.4%2.5
45Texas20.1%18.6%1.5
45Kansas9.6%8.1%1.5
47Nebraska10.4%8.9%1.4
48Alabama13.7%13.0%0.6
49West Virginia10.5%10.1%0.4
50Mississippi13.5%13.2%0.3
51Iowa7.2%8.6%'-1.3

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.

Between 2020 and 2021 (the latest available), fatal crashes during Christmas rose 15.3%. Overall, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 7.1% in the 10 years between 2012 and 2021.

Bhatt believes that the increase in fatalities during the Christmas season may be tied to a wider post-pandemic trend.

“During the COVID-19 pandemic, too many drivers got comfortable speeding or driving while distracted or impaired on uncrowded roads,” he says. “Unfortunately, they didn’t unlearn these behaviors as the shutdowns ended and roads got crowded again. We saw accident rates spike coming out of the pandemic. Fortunately, we’re seeing signs that accident rates are starting to decline.”

A 2022 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) study found that drivers were more likely to speed during rush hour amid the pandemic. Between March and June 2020, the proportion of vehicles in Virginia exceeding the speed limit by at least 10 mph rose 43% between 6 and 8:59 a.m. and 63% between 3 and 5:59 p.m. on weekdays compared to the same period in 2019. In addition, according to a 2022 study from Cambridge Mobile Telematics, drivers spent one minute and 38 seconds, on average, distracted by their phones for each hour of driving in February 2022 — a 30% increase from February 2020, just before the pandemic impacted the U.S.

Fatal crashes during Christmas, 10-year look

YearFatal crashes during Christmas% change YoY% change from 2012
2012337'-'-
201398'-70.9%'-70.9%
2014361268.4%7.1%
2015293'-18.8%'-13.1%
201633213.3%'-1.5%
2017318'-4.2%'-5.6%
201839724.8%17.8%
2019127'-68.0%'-62.3%
2020313146.5%'-7.1%
202136115.3%7.1%

Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data.

It’s worth noting that Christmas crash fatalities rose the second most between 2019 and 2020, 146.5% from 127 to 313. Meanwhile, Christmas crash fatalities rose the most between 2013 and 2014, 268.4% from 98 to 361.

What, exactly, does the NHTSA define as Christmas? It largely depends on which day of the week Christmas is. For example the 2019 Christmas period began at 6 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 24, and ended at 5:59 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 26. Meanwhile, the 2020 Christmas period began at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 24, and ended at 5:59 a.m. Monday, Dec. 28. More details are available in the methodology.

From harsh winter weather to increased holiday travel across the country, winter can be a particularly dangerous time to be a driver no matter where you are. As you prepare for the coming months, Bhatt says to keep the following tips in mind:

  • Make sure your vehicle is ready for winter. “Your tires, in particular, need to be in good shape to grip slick roads, but you also need to check your fluids, belts and hoses and replace them when necessary,” he says.
  • Slow down. Wet or icy conditions increase the distance you need to avoid a hazard that may pop up in front of you. Overcast conditions may also make it harder to recognize hazards from farther away.
  • From an insurance point of view, make sure your coverages are up to date. “If your financial situation has improved since you last set your coverages and rates, you may need higher liability limits to protect your assets,” Bhatt says. “Or you may be able to afford more coverage, such as medical coverage for you and your passengers or protection from uninsured motorists. These latter coverages are optional, but they can spare you from large out-of-pocket expenses after certain types of accidents.”
  • Consider adding roadside assistance to your car insurance if you don’t already have it from another provider. A breakdown is inconvenient any time of year, but one can be particularly unnerving — and dangerous — in winter.

LendingTree researchers analyzed National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data using the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool (FIRST).

Researchers analyzed fatal crash data in the winter and nonwinter months. To calculate this, analysts examined monthly data from 2017 through 2021 — the latest available.

Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.

Data on various topics were analyzed using this comparison:

  • Fatal crash rates per 1 billion miles
  • Pedestrian-involved fatal crashes
  • Fatal crashes during the daytime

Data for the Christmas holiday season was also analyzed. Here’s a sampling of how the NHTSA defines the Christmas period:

  • 2017: Beginning at 6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 22, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 26
  • 2018: Beginning at 6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 21, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 26
  • 2019: Beginning at 6 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 24, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 26
  • 2020: Beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 24, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Monday, Dec. 28
  • 2021: Beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 23, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Monday, Dec. 27

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