Pedestrian-Involved Fatal Crashes More Common in Winter in Every State but One
While the winter season brings holiday cheer, it also brings inclement weather, meaning the roads are often more dangerous — and more crowded as people travel for the holidays. According to the latest LendingTree study, every state outside of Iowa experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to the nonwinter months.
We’ll highlight which states had higher fatal crash rates, which ones had higher rates of daytime fatal crashes and which ones experienced the biggest increase in pedestrian-involved fatalities in the winter. Plus, stick around for tips on preparing your auto insurance for the winter season.
Key findings
- Eight states had higher fatal crash rates in the winter than during the rest of the year. Hawaii saw the biggest winter increase between 2017 and 2021 (the latest available), with fatal crashes 24.9% more common from December through March than the rest of the year. That’s significantly higher than the next states on the list, Florida (12.6%) and California (6.9%). Nationally, fatal crash rates were 4.3% less common in the winter, with North Dakota (40.7%), Vermont (37.2%) and Maine (33.3%) seeing the biggest nonwinter increases.
- In 40 states, daytime driving in the winter was deadlier than in nonwinter months. Between 2017 and 2021, 54.3% of fatal crashes in the winter in Alaska occurred during the day (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.), versus 41.5% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months — a difference of 12.7 percentage points. Nevada (6.6 percentage points) and Maine (5.9 percentage points) saw the next highest winter daytime increases.
- Every state outside of Iowa experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to nonwinter months. Nationally, pedestrians were involved in 21.5% of fatal crashes from December through March between 2017 and 2021. Comparatively, 17.0% of fatal crashes during the rest of the year involved a pedestrian. The District of Columbia had the biggest difference in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months, at 34.1 percentage points. That’s followed by Rhode Island (15.5 percentage points) and Delaware (13.3 percentage points).
- Between 2020 and 2021, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 15.3%. Overall, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 7.1% in the 10 years between 2012 and 2021. During this period, Christmas crash fatalities rose the most between 2013 and 2014 (268.4%) and 2019 and 2020 (146.5%).
Fatal crash rates are higher in the winter in 8 states
According to our analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2017 and 2021 (the latest available), eight states had higher fatal crash rates in the winter compared to the rest of the year. By state, Hawaii saw the biggest increase in winter: While there were 9.0 fatal crashes per 1 billion miles driven during the nonwinter months (April through November), that rose to 11.3 from December through March. That means fatal crashes were 24.9% more common in the winter in Hawaii.
That’s significantly higher than the next highest state on the list, Florida, which had a 12.6% increase in winter fatalities — but more on that later.
LendingTree auto insurance expert and licensed insurance agent Rob Bhatt says he’s surprised to see Hawaii at the top of the list, though a few factors could affect its ranking.
The Hawaii Department of Transportation reported that driving under the influence, speeding and distracted driving contributed to traffic fatalities the most in 2021. These behaviors can be particularly dangerous during the winter months, when road conditions may be more challenging due to weather changes. And while Hawaii doesn’t experience traditional winter weather like snow or ice, it does have a rainy season that typically begins in October and ends in April. This could lead to more hazardous driving conditions, like wet or slippery roads, during the winter season.
8 states with higher fatal crash rates in the winter months than in nonwinter months
Rank | State | Fatal crashes per 1 billion miles, winter months | Fatal crashes per 1 billion miles, nonwinter months | % change |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hawaii | 11.3 | 9.0 | 24.9% |
2 | Florida | 14.6 | 13.0 | 12.6% |
3 | California | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.9% |
4 | Alaska | 11.8 | 11.1 | 6.2% |
5 | New Mexico | 13.8 | 13.2 | 5.0% |
6 | Georgia | 11.8 | 11.3 | 4.3% |
7 | Alabama | 12.6 | 12.3 | 2.1% |
8 | Texas | 12.6 | 12.4 | 1.8% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.
Florida (12.6%) — with fatal crashes increasing from 13.0 per billion miles driven to 14.6 — and California (6.9%) — 11.0 to 11.8 — ranked next.
Florida and California also have typically mild winters, which Bhatt says could affect driver behavior. In addition, California has many areas with high traffic volumes, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Of the 25 most traveled locations in the U.S., 12 are in California, with Interstate 5 (in the L.A. metro area) ranking first.
Nationally, though, most states don’t see a rise in fatal accidents during the winter. Across the country over the same 2017-to-2021 period, fatal crash rates were 4.3% less common in the winter. North Dakota (40.7%), Vermont (37.2%) and Maine (33.3%) had the biggest decreases in fatal accidents during the winter months.
Full rankings
Change in fatal crash rates between the winter and nonwinter months by state
Rank | State | Fatal crashes per 1 billion miles, winter months | Fatal crashes per 1 billion miles, nonwinter months | % change |
---|---|---|---|---|
– | U.S. | 10.9 | 11.4 | '-4.3% |
1 | Hawaii | 11.3 | 9.0 | 24.9% |
2 | Florida | 14.6 | 13.0 | 12.6% |
3 | California | 11.8 | 11.0 | 6.9% |
4 | Alaska | 11.8 | 11.1 | 6.2% |
5 | New Mexico | 13.8 | 13.2 | 5.0% |
6 | Georgia | 11.8 | 11.3 | 4.3% |
7 | Alabama | 12.6 | 12.3 | 2.1% |
8 | Texas | 12.6 | 12.4 | 1.8% |
9 | Arizona | 13.0 | 13.0 | '-0.2% |
10 | Kansas | 12.3 | 12.4 | '-1.0% |
11 | Delaware | 12.4 | 12.5 | '-1.2% |
12 | Rhode Island | 8.4 | 8.5 | '-1.4% |
13 | Nevada | 10.9 | 11.1 | '-1.7% |
14 | Pennsylvania | 11.1 | 11.3 | '-1.9% |
15 | Louisiana | 14.6 | 15.0 | '-2.8% |
16 | Virginia | 9.8 | 10.1 | '-3.2% |
17 | Maryland | 8.9 | 9.2 | '-3.4% |
18 | Oklahoma | 13.5 | 14.0 | '-3.5% |
19 | Mississippi | 14.9 | 15.6 | '-4.1% |
20 | Massachusetts | 5.7 | 5.9 | '-4.3% |
20 | North Carolina | 11.4 | 11.9 | '-4.3% |
22 | Washington | 8.5 | 9.0 | '-5.4% |
23 | Indiana | 9.5 | 10.1 | '-5.6% |
24 | New Jersey | 7.7 | 8.3 | '-6.7% |
25 | South Carolina | 16.2 | 17.4 | '-7.1% |
26 | Oregon | 12.4 | 13.5 | '-8.1% |
27 | Kentucky | 13.3 | 14.8 | '-10.5% |
28 | Nebraska | 9.0 | 10.1 | '-10.7% |
29 | Tennessee | 11.8 | 13.2 | '-10.9% |
30 | Missouri | 10.2 | 11.6 | '-11.5% |
31 | Connecticut | 8.1 | 9.2 | '-12.2% |
32 | New Hampshire | 7.2 | 8.4 | '-14.3% |
33 | Ohio | 9.0 | 10.6 | '-15.0% |
34 | Montana | 11.9 | 14.1 | '-15.4% |
35 | West Virginia | 13.2 | 15.9 | '-17.1% |
36 | Arkansas | 12.4 | 15.0 | '-17.2% |
37 | Iowa | 8.0 | 9.7 | '-17.8% |
38 | Illinois | 8.8 | 10.9 | '-19.0% |
38 | New York | 7.2 | 8.9 | '-19.0% |
40 | Michigan | 8.6 | 11.0 | '-21.5% |
41 | District of Columbia | 7.4 | 9.5 | '-21.9% |
42 | Utah | 6.2 | 8.0 | '-22.2% |
43 | Wyoming | 8.7 | 11.2 | '-22.9% |
44 | Wisconsin | 7.1 | 9.2 | '-23.0% |
45 | Minnesota | 5.3 | 6.9 | '-23.9% |
46 | South Dakota | 8.8 | 11.6 | '-24.0% |
47 | Colorado | 8.9 | 12.1 | '-26.2% |
48 | Idaho | 8.9 | 12.4 | '-28.3% |
49 | Maine | 7.5 | 11.2 | '-33.3% |
50 | Vermont | 6.2 | 9.9 | '-37.2% |
51 | North Dakota | 6.8 | 11.5 | '-40.7% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.
In most states, daytime driving is deadlier in the winter
While fatality rates may be lower in the winter across most states, the percentage of fatal crashes occurring in the daytime was higher. Between 2017 and 2021, daytime driving in the winter months was deadlier than in the nonwinter months in 40 states.
Having less daylight may play a role in the increase in fatalities here, but Bhatt says that’s just one factor.
By state, Alaska had the biggest increase in the percentage of fatal accidents occurring in the daytime. In the winter, 54.3% of deadly crashes in Alaska happened during the day (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.). That compares with 41.5% of fatal crashes in nonwinter months — a difference of 12.7 percentage points.
States with the biggest percentage point difference between fatal daytime crashes in the winter and nonwinter months
Rank | State | % of fatal crashes in winter months during daytime | % of fatal crashes in nonwinter months during daytime | Percentage point difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alaska | 54.3% | 41.5% | 12.7 |
2 | Nevada | 52.4% | 45.8% | 6.6 |
3 | Maine | 63.7% | 57.8% | 5.9 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.
Of course, Alaska’s proximity to the Arctic Circle could play a role here. While all states experience less daylight in the winter, Alaska’s northernmost regions experience over two months of total darkness, according to Alaska.org. While not all of Alaska goes dark in winter, its interior regions may only experience under four hours of light on the shortest day of the year. Less visibility — plus Alaska’s particularly harsh winters — may increase daytime driving dangers.
Nevada (6.6 percentage points) and Maine (5.9 percentage points) saw the next highest differences in the percentage of fatal crashes in the winter and nonwinter months during the daytime.
Full rankings
Biggest/smallest percentage point differences between fatal daytime crashes in the winter and nonwinter months
Rank | State | % of fatal crashes in winter months during daytime | % of fatal crashes in nonwinter months during daytime | Percentage point difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
– | U.S. | 47.4% | 46.8% | 0.5 |
1 | Alaska | 54.3% | 41.5% | 12.7 |
2 | Nevada | 52.4% | 45.8% | 6.6 |
3 | Maine | 63.7% | 57.8% | 5.9 |
4 | Vermont | 66.1% | 60.8% | 5.4 |
5 | Rhode Island | 48.1% | 42.8% | 5.3 |
6 | Iowa | 57.9% | 54.1% | 3.8 |
7 | Colorado | 53.8% | 50.3% | 3.5 |
8 | South Dakota | 60.6% | 57.5% | 3.1 |
8 | Oregon | 53.2% | 50.1% | 3.1 |
8 | Washington | 49.1% | 46.1% | 3.1 |
11 | Minnesota | 58.1% | 55.3% | 2.8 |
11 | Idaho | 58.4% | 55.6% | 2.8 |
13 | New York | 50.8% | 48.1% | 2.7 |
13 | Arizona | 47.8% | 45.1% | 2.7 |
15 | Oklahoma | 52.2% | 49.7% | 2.6 |
16 | Louisiana | 45.5% | 42.9% | 2.5 |
17 | New Jersey | 47.2% | 44.9% | 2.3 |
17 | South Carolina | 44.9% | 42.6% | 2.3 |
19 | Alabama | 50.5% | 48.2% | 2.2 |
20 | West Virginia | 56.8% | 55.3% | 1.5 |
20 | North Carolina | 51.5% | 50.0% | 1.5 |
22 | Missouri | 52.3% | 50.9% | 1.4 |
22 | Utah | 57.4% | 56.0% | 1.4 |
24 | Kentucky | 55.7% | 54.4% | 1.3 |
24 | Wisconsin | 52.6% | 51.2% | 1.3 |
26 | Illinois | 46.7% | 45.5% | 1.2 |
26 | California | 40.5% | 39.3% | 1.2 |
26 | Maryland | 44.5% | 43.3% | 1.2 |
29 | North Dakota | 48.0% | 46.9% | 1.0 |
30 | Ohio | 49.4% | 48.5% | 0.9 |
30 | Virginia | 50.4% | 49.4% | 0.9 |
30 | Mississippi | 51.6% | 50.7% | 0.9 |
33 | Michigan | 47.4% | 46.8% | 0.6 |
33 | Arkansas | 53.8% | 53.2% | 0.6 |
33 | Pennsylvania | 52.8% | 52.3% | 0.6 |
36 | Wyoming | 57.7% | 57.2% | 0.5 |
37 | New Mexico | 48.3% | 47.8% | 0.4 |
38 | Kansas | 53.3% | 53.0% | 0.3 |
39 | Texas | 42.6% | 42.5% | 0.2 |
40 | Georgia | 48.2% | 48.1% | 0.1 |
41 | Indiana | 50.4% | 50.5% | '-0.1 |
42 | Connecticut | 42.3% | 42.7% | '-0.4 |
43 | Tennessee | 48.0% | 48.6% | '-0.6 |
44 | Florida | 41.2% | 41.9% | '-0.7 |
44 | Massachusetts | 47.6% | 48.4% | '-0.7 |
46 | Delaware | 46.4% | 48.2% | '-1.8 |
47 | Montana | 48.3% | 50.6% | '-2.3 |
48 | Nebraska | 48.9% | 52.7% | '-3.7 |
49 | District of Columbia | 28.9% | 33.3% | '-4.4 |
50 | New Hampshire | 50.4% | 59.6% | '-9.3 |
51 | Hawaii | 30.6% | 43.5% | '-12.9 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.
Only 1 state didn’t experience a rise in pedestrian-involved fatal crashes in the winter
Winter is a particularly dangerous season for pedestrians. Except for Iowa, every state experienced an increase in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months compared to the nonwinter months between 2017 and 2021.
Nationally, 21.5% of fatal crashes from December through March involved a pedestrian during the four years analyzed. During the rest of the year, 17.0% of fatal crashes involved a pedestrian — a 4.5 percentage point difference.
By state, the District of Columbia had the biggest increases in the percentage of fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter months (63.2%) compared to the nonwinter months (29.1%) — a 34.1 percentage point difference.
States with the biggest percentage point difference between fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months
Rank | State | % of fatal crashes in winter months involving pedestrians | % of fatal crashes in nonwinter months involving pedestrians | Percentage point difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | District of Columbia | 63.2% | 29.1% | 34.1 |
2 | Rhode Island | 31.2% | 15.7% | 15.5 |
3 | Delaware | 34.6% | 21.4% | 13.3 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.
The District’s walkability may play a role here. According to a study from Smart Growth America and Places Platform, the District of Columbia is the third-most pedestrian-friendly metro among the 35 most populous. With a larger number of people likely on the streets — plus D.C.’s wet and snowy winters — drivers may lose control of their vehicles more easily, and may be more likely to hit a pedestrian.
Rhode Island (15.5 percentage points) and Delaware (13.3 percentage points) followed. Like the District of Columbia, these states’ particularly snowy and rainy winters likely play a role in pedestrian fatalities.
Full rankings
Biggest/smallest percentage point differences between fatal crashes involving pedestrians in the winter and nonwinter months
Rank | State | % of fatal crashes in winter months involving pedestrians | % of fatal crashes in nonwinter months involving pedestrians | Percentage point difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
– | U.S. | 21.5% | 17.0% | 4.5 |
1 | District of Columbia | 63.2% | 29.1% | 34.1 |
2 | Rhode Island | 31.2% | 15.7% | 15.5 |
3 | Delaware | 34.6% | 21.4% | 13.3 |
4 | Hawaii | 35.9% | 23.6% | 12.2 |
5 | New Hampshire | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.8 |
6 | Alaska | 26.6% | 16.1% | 10.5 |
7 | New York | 35.1% | 24.7% | 10.4 |
8 | Connecticut | 27.2% | 17.9% | 9.2 |
8 | South Dakota | 16.7% | 7.5% | 9.2 |
10 | New Jersey | 38.6% | 29.4% | 9.1 |
11 | Washington | 26.8% | 17.9% | 8.9 |
12 | Maine | 15.9% | 7.5% | 8.5 |
13 | Utah | 21.6% | 13.2% | 8.4 |
14 | Wyoming | 13.0% | 5.5% | 7.5 |
15 | Montana | 13.9% | 6.8% | 7.1 |
16 | Nevada | 29.9% | 22.9% | 7.0 |
17 | Massachusetts | 25.1% | 18.7% | 6.4 |
18 | California | 32.1% | 25.7% | 6.3 |
19 | Idaho | 12.0% | 6.0% | 6.0 |
19 | Maryland | 28.9% | 23.0% | 6.0 |
21 | Pennsylvania | 19.1% | 13.3% | 5.8 |
22 | Michigan | 20.3% | 14.7% | 5.6 |
23 | Oregon | 20.2% | 15.4% | 4.9 |
24 | New Mexico | 25.8% | 21.2% | 4.6 |
24 | Georgia | 21.0% | 16.4% | 4.6 |
26 | Vermont | 14.5% | 10.3% | 4.2 |
26 | Minnesota | 15.1% | 11.0% | 4.2 |
28 | Ohio | 15.8% | 11.9% | 3.9 |
29 | Illinois | 19.6% | 15.8% | 3.8 |
29 | Louisiana | 21.6% | 17.8% | 3.8 |
31 | Colorado | 17.5% | 13.8% | 3.7 |
32 | North Dakota | 10.2% | 6.7% | 3.5 |
32 | Virginia | 17.0% | 13.4% | 3.5 |
32 | Arkansas | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.5 |
32 | Missouri | 14.9% | 11.4% | 3.5 |
36 | Wisconsin | 12.2% | 8.9% | 3.3 |
37 | South Carolina | 19.6% | 16.6% | 3.0 |
38 | Oklahoma | 15.4% | 12.5% | 2.9 |
38 | Indiana | 14.0% | 11.1% | 2.9 |
40 | Arizona | 25.3% | 22.5% | 2.8 |
41 | Kentucky | 13.3% | 10.6% | 2.7 |
41 | Tennessee | 16.1% | 13.4% | 2.7 |
43 | North Carolina | 17.9% | 15.3% | 2.6 |
44 | Florida | 24.9% | 22.4% | 2.5 |
45 | Texas | 20.1% | 18.6% | 1.5 |
45 | Kansas | 9.6% | 8.1% | 1.5 |
47 | Nebraska | 10.4% | 8.9% | 1.4 |
48 | Alabama | 13.7% | 13.0% | 0.6 |
49 | West Virginia | 10.5% | 10.1% | 0.4 |
50 | Mississippi | 13.5% | 13.2% | 0.3 |
51 | Iowa | 7.2% | 8.6% | '-1.3 |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data. Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year. Note: Differences are displayed with one decimal point, though unrounded numbers were used for calculations.
Fatal crashes during Christmas rose over 10 years
Between 2020 and 2021 (the latest available), fatal crashes during Christmas rose 15.3%. Overall, fatal crashes during Christmas rose 7.1% in the 10 years between 2012 and 2021.
Bhatt believes that the increase in fatalities during the Christmas season may be tied to a wider post-pandemic trend.
A 2022 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) study found that drivers were more likely to speed during rush hour amid the pandemic. Between March and June 2020, the proportion of vehicles in Virginia exceeding the speed limit by at least 10 mph rose 43% between 6 and 8:59 a.m. and 63% between 3 and 5:59 p.m. on weekdays compared to the same period in 2019. In addition, according to a 2022 study from Cambridge Mobile Telematics, drivers spent one minute and 38 seconds, on average, distracted by their phones for each hour of driving in February 2022 — a 30% increase from February 2020, just before the pandemic impacted the U.S.
Fatal crashes during Christmas, 10-year look
Year | Fatal crashes during Christmas | % change YoY | % change from 2012 |
---|---|---|---|
2012 | 337 | '- | '- |
2013 | 98 | '-70.9% | '-70.9% |
2014 | 361 | 268.4% | 7.1% |
2015 | 293 | '-18.8% | '-13.1% |
2016 | 332 | 13.3% | '-1.5% |
2017 | 318 | '-4.2% | '-5.6% |
2018 | 397 | 24.8% | 17.8% |
2019 | 127 | '-68.0% | '-62.3% |
2020 | 313 | 146.5% | '-7.1% |
2021 | 361 | 15.3% | 7.1% |
Source: LendingTree analysis of NHTSA FARS data.
It’s worth noting that Christmas crash fatalities rose the second most between 2019 and 2020, 146.5% from 127 to 313. Meanwhile, Christmas crash fatalities rose the most between 2013 and 2014, 268.4% from 98 to 361.
Your winter weather insurance checklist: What to keep in mind
From harsh winter weather to increased holiday travel across the country, winter can be a particularly dangerous time to be a driver no matter where you are. As you prepare for the coming months, Bhatt says to keep the following tips in mind:
- Make sure your vehicle is ready for winter. “Your tires, in particular, need to be in good shape to grip slick roads, but you also need to check your fluids, belts and hoses and replace them when necessary,” he says.
- Slow down. Wet or icy conditions increase the distance you need to avoid a hazard that may pop up in front of you. Overcast conditions may also make it harder to recognize hazards from farther away.
- From an insurance point of view, make sure your coverages are up to date. “If your financial situation has improved since you last set your coverages and rates, you may need higher liability limits to protect your assets,” Bhatt says. “Or you may be able to afford more coverage, such as medical coverage for you and your passengers or protection from uninsured motorists. These latter coverages are optional, but they can spare you from large out-of-pocket expenses after certain types of accidents.”
- Consider adding roadside assistance to your car insurance if you don’t already have it from another provider. A breakdown is inconvenient any time of year, but one can be particularly unnerving — and dangerous — in winter.
Methodology
LendingTree researchers analyzed National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data using the Fatality and Injury Reporting System Tool (FIRST).
Researchers analyzed fatal crash data in the winter and nonwinter months. To calculate this, analysts examined monthly data from 2017 through 2021 — the latest available.
Winter was defined as December, January, February and March, with nonwinter being the rest of the year.
Data on various topics were analyzed using this comparison:
- Fatal crash rates per 1 billion miles
- Pedestrian-involved fatal crashes
- Fatal crashes during the daytime
Data for the Christmas holiday season was also analyzed. Here’s a sampling of how the NHTSA defines the Christmas period:
- 2017: Beginning at 6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 22, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 26
- 2018: Beginning at 6 p.m. Friday, Dec. 21, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Wednesday, Dec. 26
- 2019: Beginning at 6 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 24, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 26
- 2020: Beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 24, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Monday, Dec. 28
- 2021: Beginning at 6 p.m. Thursday, Dec. 23, and ending at 5:59 a.m. Monday, Dec. 27